Supporting European Farmers’ Decisions in Perennial Agriculture
Helping European farmers adapt perennial crops to climate change by providing hyper-local climate risk intelligence.
In a nutshell
- Develops a pilot climate service for perennial crops such as apples and grapes.
- It leverages the DestinE Climate Digital Twin to deliver localized risk indicators (heat stress, precipitation, frost risk, drought indices).
- A mechanistic microclimate model downscales data to 50×50 m resolution at farm scale.
- The Pilot service is co-designed with end-users (farmers, cooperatives, and advisors) to ensure usability and adoption.
- “What-if” scenarios support strategic long-term decisions on cultivar selection, irrigation, and relocation.
Technical Overview
Challenge
Perennial crops such as apples and grapes are key to Europe’s agricultural and cultural heritage but face increasing pressure from climate change. Their long-life cycles and fixed locations make them particularly exposed to extreme temperatures, shifting phenological cycles, and water scarcity, all of which affect yield, quality, and profitability.
Farmers are already coping with rising temperatures that cause fruit sunburn and pest outbreaks, unpredictable harvest timing, and disrupted dormancy periods. However, their current planning is often based on fragmented data or historical trends, which are no longer reliable under rapidly changing climatic conditions.
To adapt effectively, farmers and cooperatives need high-resolution, forward-looking climate intelligence that translates complex data into actionable insights. The Pilot Service directly addresses this gap by providing localized projections and risk indicators at farm scale, enabling users to plan adaptation strategies—such as cultivar selection, irrigation investment, or relocation—with confidence. In this way, the service transforms climate uncertainty into informed decision-making for the long-term sustainability of European perennial agriculture.
DestinE Solution
The Pilot Service will demonstrate the value of the Climate Digital Twin in supporting adaptation strategies for the perennial agriculture sector, with a focus on apple and grape production.
The service integrates a web-based application hosted on the DestinE Platform with advanced downscaling capabilities to deliver high-resolution climate information for end users. It provides data on key bioclimatic indicators relevant to perennial crops—such as growing degree days, frost risk, heat stress, and drought severity—across multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.
The crop-specific modules include phenology and risk models developed and validated for apple orchards and vineyards, simulating crop development stages and quantifying exposure to damaging climatic events during sensitive phases.
At finer spatial scales, the service employs the open-source mechanistic model Microclimf to downscale Climate DT simulations to farm level. The model solves surface energy balance equations and accounts for local vegetation, soil, and topographic characteristics to produce high-resolution (50×50 m) microclimate fields of temperature and humidity, enabling site-specific assessments.
The service initially targets the Val di Non region (Trentino, Italy) for apple and grapevine production, selected for its vulnerability to climate extremes and strong user engagement. It will subsequently be scaled to other European farming contexts through the project’s partner network.
Finally, the platform includes interactive “what-if” scenarios that allow users to evaluate potential adaptation measures, such as adopting new cultivars, optimizing irrigation strategies, or relocating production areas under future climate conditions.
Impact
Expected impacts include:
- Improved capacity for farmers and cooperatives to anticipate and mitigate climate risks.
- Support for long-term investment decisions, from orchard renewal to irrigation infrastructure.
- Enhanced resilience of rural economies and contribution to sustainable EU agricultural policies.
- Scalability: once validated for apples and grapes, the approach can extend to pears, berries, and even annual crops across Europe.
Contributions
Subcontractors
