NWP at the crossroads: How the Quiet, Digital and Data-Driven Revolutions are shaping the future of NWP

Director of DestinE Irina Sandu (ECMWF) will lead this episode of the European Meteorological Society’s webinar series, delving into the revolutions shaping Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP).

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) stands at a pivotal juncture, influenced by three transformative revolutions. These revolutions, akin to converging roads, are reshaping the landscape of Earth system prediction.

• Quiet Revolution: Leveraging improved modeling, observations, and computational power, it has propelled NWP forward, constantly enhancing prediction quality.
• Digital Revolution: Enabled by modern supercomputing, it has ushered in a new era of high-resolution simulations, unravelling localized phenomena with unprecedented fidelity.
• Machine Learning Revolution: Compact, cost-effective machine-learned models recently emerged as formidable contenders of traditional ones, reimagining NWP boundaries.

These revolutions will be illustrated using examples from past and recent efforts at ECMWF, including from the ambitious Destination Earth initiative of the European Commission aiming to develop Digital Twins of the Earth System. Looking ahead, the future of NWP and more generally of Earth system prediction capabilities lies in synergising these revolutions, steering us towards a future where predictions are not only increasingly precise but also accessible to all.

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